Venue: 2063 Valley Life Science Building. 8:00 - 8:30 Registration and Breakfast 8:30 - 9:00 Welcome and Background 9:00 - 9:40 Revolutionizing Science & Mathematics Education: the global change challenge Mark McCaffrey, National Center of Science Education 9:40 - 10:20 Mathematics and Climate: A New Partnership Hans Kaper, Georgetown University 10:20 - 10:50 Break 10:50 - 11:30 The Application of Information Theory to Ecology John Harte, University of California - Berkeley 11:30 - 12:10 A GIS Global Change Case Study Kevin Koy, University of California - Berkeley 12:10 - 1:30 Lunch 1:30 - 3:00 Panel 1: Communicating Global Change: Minda Berbeco, National Center of Science Education, Barbara Cozzens, Holly Gaff, Old Dominion University 3:00 - 3:30 Break 3:30 - 5:30 Contributed Talks: Sea-ice Albedo Feedback and the Tipping Points in Algae Dynamics Ivan Sudakov, University of Utah Predicting Future Extinction Debt from Present-Day Community Patterns Justin Kitzes, University of California-Berkeley Optimal Control of Restoration - the Role of Economic Threshold Adam Lampert, University of California-Davis Both Climate Change and Land Use Change Influenceinvasive Species' Future Ranges Jennifer Weaver, University of California-Berkeley Towards a National Early Warning System for Human West Nile Virus Incidence Carrie Manore, Tulane University Wastes to Fuel - Waste a Valuable Resource Viral Sagar, Rutgers University 6:00 - 9:00 Banquet Dinner and Talk Finding the Sweet Spot Richard Salter, Oberlin College Location: The Faculty Club Howard Room University of California, Berkeley Tuesday, May 20, 2014 8:00 - 8:30 Breakfast 8:30 - 9:10 Massive Data Set Management and Analysis in the Context of Global Change Carl Boettiger, University of California - Santa Cruz 9:10 - 9:50 Understanding Socio-Ecosystems as Complex Networks in Changing Environments Neo Martinez, University of Arizona 9:50 - 10:30 Applications of GIS in Emerging Zoonotic Processes Jason Blackburn, University of Florida 10:30 - 11:00 Break 11:00 - 12:20 Panel 2: Data Deluge or Drought (Quality and Quantity): David Ackerly, University of California - Berkeley, Fred Roberts, Rutgers University, Philip Stark, University of California - Berkeley 12:20 - 1:30 Lunch 1:30 - 3:00 Workshops 1 and 2 (in parallel) 1: Student driven: Using Mathematics to Interface Global and Ecosystem Processes 2: Student driven: Using Mathematics to Link Individual and Population Level Processes 3:00 - 3:30 Break 3:30 - 4:30 Workshops 1 and 2 (continue) 1: Student driven: Using Mathematics to Interface Global and Ecosystem Processes 2: Student driven: Using Mathematics to Link Individual and Population Level Processes 4:30 - 5:00 Workshop report back Wednesday, May 21, 2014 8:00 - 8:30 Breakfast 8:30 - 9:10 When All Models are Wrong Andrea Saltelli, European Commission JRC 9:10 - 10:30 Panel 3: Are Our Models Adequate for Policy Formation: Solomon Hsiang, University of California - Berkeley, Donald Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, A. Marm Kilpatrick, University of California - Santa Cruz 10:30 - 11:00 Break 11:00 - 12:00 Way forward discussion
Scratch notes
One-at-a-time sensitivity: (OAT), instead of exhaustive combinations (Latin hypercube)
VV
Validation: are we solving the equations correctly Verification: are we solving the correct equations
UQ: Uncertainty Quantification
Using a particular scenario (double C02) -> a PDF Different models -> different PDFs
What are the nobs, what are the ranges?
Spread in a single model greater than spread across model means…