I'm Carl Boettiger , a post-doctoral researcher with Marc Mangel and Steve Munch in the Center for Stock Assessment Research, at UC Santa Cruz, working on regime shifts in ecology and evolution. Such shifts mark the most dramatic events in complex systems. What causes these transitions to occur? Can we detect or forecast these changes? How do we robustly manage ecosystems that experience such tipping points? Understanding and forecasting these events challenges the capacity of both our statistical methods and the data available. My research aims to extend and quantify the limits of understanding through nonparametric Bayesian inference, high performance computing and big data sets. I keep an open lab notebook, as I describe in this introduction.