Chadès, I., Carwardine, J., Martin, T.G., Nicol, S., Sabbadin, R. & Buffet, O. (2012) MOMDPs: a solution for modelling adaptive management problems. The Twenty-Sixth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-12), pp. 267-273. Toronto, Canada.
10.1098/rspb.2013.0325 Migratory connectivity magnifies the consequences of habitat loss from sea-level rise for shorebird populations
presents the challenges of the uncertainty table. Additional challenges in making an apples-to-apples comparison of the benefit of decreasing noise of different systems (e.g. in pricing information?)
Some good questions following talk, primarily on BNP part.
- Where does the risk-adverse vs risk-prone behavior come from? Adjusting curvature of the uncertainty appropriately.
- Any lessons after stock collapsed, e.g. Rebuild a stock rather than mantain it? (Perhaps, but may face hysteresis in a way the intial collapse does not).
- Brute-force passive learning?
- Is an active learning approach more or less valuable in a changing environment
- Embracing surprise: how do we actually mathematically do this.
- Limitations due to constraints on frequency of updating. (e.g. we don’t get to change harvest, we get to set a TAC once every ten years).
- Uncertainty affecting net present value vs affecting model behavior