• Finishing up edits.
  • Writing PRSB reply


  • In tomorrow’s Marc meeting, check in about what to include for the CSTAR report
  • manuscript / analysis updates
  • Comments on recent lit?



  • Dai et. al. (2013) , with introductory piece by Carpenter (2013) . In this they look only at the spatial extent of a perturbation. Presumbably one might attempt to compare the spatial extent over time to establish a baseline, or otherwise identify a control system. Very difficult to see how this can be applied without appropriate references.

Also provides an elegant and clear, if rather intuitive, demonstration that spatially connected / mixing populations will dampen out the signal. Perhaps the interpretation of this misplaces the emphasis – for the connectedness is allowing the insult (dilution of nutrients) to diffuse among neighbors may be strengthening the resilience relative to an isolated population, and therefore it is only appropriate that the signal would weaken.

Hehe. Nice to see our Prosecutor’s Fallacy paper (Boettiger & Hastings, 2012 ) being used as further evidence for the value of experimental confirmation: “tests of these indicators in replicated experiments, which avoid the bias intro- duced by selective sampling (23) are lacking.”

  • Glaser et. al. (2013) . Nonlinear forecasting doesn’t perform well across the board on these various fisheries data. Authors conclude that this suggests these systems are inherently unpredictable, though seems one could do more to rule out methodological weaknesses and make a more precise statement (perhaps a mutual information claim). Their approach having a large suite of data sets against which to test the performance of a method is nevertheless an interesting idea that’s had some popularity in the machine learning world. Hopefully more researchers will attempt a parallel analysis of these data.


  • C. Boettiger, A. Hastings, (2012) Early Warning Signals And The Prosecutor’S Fallacy. Proceedings of The Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 279 4734-4739 10.1098/rspb.2012.2085
  • Stephen R. Carpenter, (2013) Complex Systems: Spatial Signatures of Resilience. Nature 10.1038/nature12092
  • Lei Dai, Kirill S. Korolev, Jeff Gore, (2013) Slower Recovery in Space Before Collapse of Connected Populations. Nature 10.1038/nature12071
  • Sarah M Glaser, Michael J Fogarty, Hui Liu, Irit Altman, Chih-Hao Hsieh, Les Kaufman, Alec D MacCall, Andrew A Rosenberg, Hao Ye, George Sugihara, (2013) Complex Dynamics May Limit Prediction in Marine Fisheries. Fish And Fisheries n/a-n/a 10.1111/faf.12037