Trying to make this show reading of the day, the script below shows only current reading:

Friendfeed discussion on solving this:

## Warning Signals

• Implementing likelihood-based methods for early warning signals. Trying three models:

- Model 3 is intended to be a changepoint analysis, where α(t) is piecewise constant. - I solved analytically the transition probability density in Model 2 on User:Carl Boettiger/Notebook/Stochastic Population Dynamics/2010/05/06, see this and the following entry. - Code implementations are in Structured Populations repository

#### To Do

1. Simulation routine for custom equations (2, 3)
2. Neyman-Pearson Likelihood ratio test method between models
3. Simulation from actual population dynamics – update warning signals method to return individual runs