# Notes

• RNeXML merge travis integration with support for rrdf. See pull #57
• Reply to Perry re nonparametric approaches
• 10am Andrew Skype meeting re: his manuscript
• rOpenSci discussion re: other services, formats.
• Reading Caldwell et al, Geophysical Letters. Good example of naiive data mining leading to spurious correlations from non-independent models. (/ht @FreshwaterEcology
• Looking over NSFâ€™s Data Infrastructure Building Blocks, DIBB call and previously funded work.
• Remote control for Ubuntu via android? Considering:
• xbmc with xbmc-remote: Looks promising if a bit heavy; connection unsuccessful.
• WiFi Mouse successful connection via autoconnect and thethered wireless, works pretty smothly with limited setup. Does need root running mouseserver, installed from an open source .deb file.
• 2pm rOpenSci conference call
• Calculations, see below

## Bayesian Early Warning

Continuing calculation from 2013/12/10, which integrates out $$\theta$$. Next steps:

• Integrate out $$\sigma$$
• Grid-search $$\alpha$$
• Implement numerically
• Implement approach for time-heterogeneous case.

Simplifying and combing terms from where we left off: the integral of some Gaussian of variance $$\nu$$ evaluates to $$\sqrt{2\pi \nu}$$ which we solved for previously, giving us:

$f(A_t) \left( 2 \pi V_t \right)^{-(T-1)/2} \left( 2 \pi V_t \right)^{1/2} \left(B^2(T-1) \right)^{-1/2}$

$= f(A_t) \left( 2 \pi V_t \right)^{-(T-2)/2} \left(B^2(T-1) \right)^{-1/2}$

Substituting in for $$V$$ to have explicitly in terms of sigma, (note: Correcting the $$f(A_t)$$ term, which was missing the denominator in the earlier version of 2013/12/10, now fixed).

$= \exp\left(\frac{}{}\right) \sigma^{-(T-2)} \left( \frac{\pi}{\alpha}\left(1- e^{-\alpha t}\right) \right)^{-(T-2)/2} \left(B^2(T-1) \right)^{-1/2}$

and is then is integrable in terms of $$\sigma$$ by recognizing this as a Gamma integral,

$= f(A_t) \sigma^{-(T-2)} \left( \frac{\pi}{\alpha}\left(1- e^{-\alpha t}\right) \right)^{-(T-2)/2} \left(B^2(T-1) \right)^{-1/2}$