Warning signals

  • Critical transitions at Amer Fisheries Society

  • Ives, A., & Dakos, V. (2012). Detecting dynamical changes in nonlinear time series using locally linear state-space models. Ecosphere, 3(June). Retrieved from

  • Feng, J., Dakos, V., & van Nes, E. H. (2012). Does predator interference cause alternative stable states in multispecies communities? Theoretical population biology. doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2012.06.003

  • Katz, R. W., Brush, G. S., & Parlange, M. B. (2005). Statistics of Extremes : Modeling Ecological Disturbances, 86(5), 1124-1134.

More ABC methods in Evolution

  • Kutsukake, N., & Innan, H. (2012). Simulation-Based Likelihood Approach for Evolutionary Models of Phenotypic Traits on Phylogeny. Evolution, (1), no-no. doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646.2012.01775.x


Might be a good paper for algorithms group to read.

  • Wu, X., Kumar, V., Ross Quinlan, J., Ghosh, J., Yang, Q., Motoda, H., McLachlan, G. J., et al. (2007). Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowledge and Information Systems (Vol. 14, pp. 1-37). doi:10.1007/s10115-007-0114-2

And a good one for theory tea?

  • De Boer, R. J. (2012). Which of Our Modeling Predictions Are Robust? (R. Antia, Ed.)PLoS Computational Biology, 8(7), e1002593. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002593

Papers following up from ESA

Regime shifts in disease models

  • Chaves, L. F., Hashizume, M., Satake, A., & Minakawa, N. (2012). Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands. Parasitology, 139(1), 14-25. doi:10.1017/S0031182011001685

  • Davies, T. D., & Baum, J. K. (2012). Extinction Risk and Overfishing: Reconciling Conservation and Fisheries Perspectives on the Status of Marine Fishes. Scientific Reports, 2, 1-9. doi:10.1038/srep00561

  • Fries, R. S. D., Chapin, F. S., & Syvitski, J. (2012). Planetary Opportunities: A Social Contract for Global Change Science to Contribute to a Sustainable Future. BioScience, 62(6), 603-606. doi:10.1525/bio.2012.62.6.11

  • Shelton, a. O., & Mangel, M. (2011). Reply to Sugihara et al: The biology of variability in fish populations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(48), E1226-E1226. doi:10.1073/pnas.1115765108

  • Shelton, A., Dick, E., & Pearson, D. (2012). species composition and quantifying uncertainty in multispecies fisheries: hierarchical Bayesian models for stratified sampling protocols with missing data. … Journal of Fisheries …, 246(5007), 231-246. doi:10.1139/F2011-152

  • Shelton, A. O., & Mangel, M. (2011). Fluctuations of fish populations and the magnifying effects of fishing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(17), 7075-80. doi:10.1073/pnas.1100334108