Progress this week, by project

Critical transitions

Must determine the correct set of comparisons:

  • Solve the SDP optim using the exact time dependent
  • Simulate under an f with the same escapement policy but different functional form, i.e. logistic with K & r estimated from the May example, either analytically or directly from the data.
  • Considering the costs of “cautious policy” (calculates optimal harvest recursively but always selects a fraction P of the optimal.) Results in non-constant escapement rules:
plot of chunk policyfn_plot
plot of chunk policyfn_plot

Also has nonlinear (convex) impact on value.

Filing out the boxes:

  • the value of no action, no shift – NPV under assumed model
  • the value of no action, shift – depends when shift occurs. Assume worst?
  • value of action, no shift – Action is p = ?
  • value of action, shift – action is p = ? Under what shift process?
  • Consider the single-timestep decision first. Then the repeated decision.

Value of information

  • logistic, lognormal (any measurement error is most conservative, then determinstic. gi the least)
  • Beverton-Holt, lognormal (early version of figures) deterministic is least conservative, measurement errors, combined errors most. (Rerunning as bh_lognormal.Rmd)
  • logistic, uniform (deterministic is always most conservative. gi is least)
  • Beverton-Holt, uniform (deterministic is most conservative, growth noise is least!)

  • constructed bias table: optimal under low/med/high r by implement under low/med/high r. (results)

rfishbase revisions

  • add fair use text, future development with DONE
  • add all dependencies. DONE
  • Reply letter text, send to P and D. DONE
  • switch to robust regression. DONE
  • fix/tweak figure appearance. DONE
  • Resubmit.


  • Finish updates based on Duncan’s suggestions. DONE
  • Submit 0.0-6 to CRAN. DONE
  • Submit manuscript. DONE

Working on / To Do

  • rfishbase – revisions. DONE
  • evolution talk
  • ievobio talk
  • csgf talk
  • esa talk
  • wrightscape
  • Alan decision theory and early warning
  • Jim’s precautionary paper JEEM
  • PDG policy costs
  • Jake uncertainty and learning