Chris Costello Talk

Presents unpublished work on value of (behavioral) adaptation, using forestry practices changing under climate change as the example. If we ignore adaptive responses, we overestimate costs and underestimate benefits.

  • Effect w/ adaptation:

\[ \frac{d V}{d \theta} = \frac{\partial f}{\partial r} \frac{\partial r }{\partial \theta} + \frac{\partial f}{\partial \theta} \]

  • Envelope theorem: optimal point is at ( df/dr = 0 ), so no value of adaptation after optimizing with respect to r.
  • Present Faustman harvest model adding with heterogeneity on site, species, time, age, environment to dynamic programming solution.


  • Discuss @Sethi2005 and @Brozovic2011
  • Option value pricing on acting on an early warning signal?
  • Discussion of adding


  • Fascinating discussion of his experience in the marine reserve design process, in which they use a model to score proposals offered by stakeholders but are forbidden using the model to predict the optimal policy (since they are then more directly accountable for the recommendation).


  • Should we present the additional traits that do not show a signal, for contrast?
  • Launched additional runs on farm cluster, each on 16 cores, running over all traits:
pid priority name time of launch
61830 0.61000 intra 05/04/2012 15:26:21
61831 0.61000 twoshifts 5/04/2012 15:27:06
61832 0.00000 pharyngeal 05/04/2012 15:34:07