## Chris Costello Talk

Presents unpublished work on value of (behavioral) adaptation, using forestry practices changing under climate change as the example. **If we ignore adaptive responses, we overestimate costs and underestimate benefits.**

- Effect w/ adaptation:

\[ \frac{d V}{d \theta} = \frac{\partial f}{\partial r} \frac{\partial r }{\partial \theta} + \frac{\partial f}{\partial \theta} \]

- Envelope theorem: optimal point is at ( df/dr = 0 ), so no value of adaptation after optimizing with respect to r.
- Present Faustman harvest model adding with heterogeneity on site, species, time, age, environment to dynamic programming solution.

## meeting

- Discuss @Sethi2005 and @Brozovic2011
- Option value pricing on acting on an early warning signal?
- Discussion of adding

## lunch

- Fascinating discussion of his experience in the marine reserve design process, in which they use a model to score proposals offered by stakeholders but are forbidden using the model to predict the optimal policy (since they are then more directly accountable for the recommendation).

## Wrightscape

- Should we present the additional traits that do not show a signal, for contrast?
- Launched additional runs on
`farm`

cluster, each on 16 cores, running over all traits:

pid | priority | name | time of launch |
---|---|---|---|

61830 | 0.61000 | intra | 05/04/2012 15:26:21 |

61831 | 0.61000 | twoshifts | 5/04/2012 15:27:06 |

61832 | 0.00000 | pharyngeal | 05/04/2012 15:34:07 |