# Thursday, Friday, Saturday

• forage fish seminar - Patrick and Jay with interesting stuff. Sounds like compensating benefits due to quality-response (larger fish) and stock effect (easier to find) will be more minor in this fishery, but demand response be compensating.
• knit hooks
• externalization example working (based on Reed.R). Still unsure how I feel about externalization vs fully literate code. Redundant typing is bad but isn’t that why common tasks are functionalized?
• pmc-0.5 posted to CRAN (use check --as-cran in tests)
• R updated 2.14.2, packages updated.
• markdown notes of Reed vs extra noise

## Rules-of-thumb that are not robust

• Precautionary.md considers deriving an optimal policy by assuming that a threshold (in the RickerAllee model) is higher than it really is, which should lead to a conservative policy. This does lead to fewer crashes than the optimal model derived with the correct uncertainty, but, surprisingly, when faced with a higher noise than anticipated, this does not out-perform the optimal model.
• This pattern persists in the case where the additional noise comes from the implementation step, rather than as additional growth noise (a conservative estimate of the threshold point doesn’t help).