Another day of working on 4 different projects at once.
Warning signals
review Alan pulses manuscript
review (Dulvy et. al. 2003) Paper discussing the data you want $ $ the data you want
No way in Anchoveta data, look at time series:
Example in the cod data
using only up until 1991 data:
- Way forward – construct the step-wise predictor of probabilities. Add the economic costs of both. run in replicate — eek this will definitely be one for the NERSC cluster. Is there really no policy to compare against?
wrightscape
- Selecting figures, see section in Yesterday’s post
Evolution
describe the differences in optimization methods, and modify our mention of the Hessian to say that it may provide reasonable CIs, but not necessarily, and can be problematic to compute. – Done
Consider AICc for comparison? – supplement?
Cite Revel & Collar 2009 – Done
Reply letter.
Code polish and submit.
pdg-control
Very clever! State-space too big for SDP? Just simulate forward a few steps and call it good. Now with citation. Nicol & Chadès, 2011
Discussing with Paul – read:
Checking expected behavior when the cost of change is high and the stock has significant scrap value (reward for non-zero terminal condition):
in this limit the trivial solution is not to fish.
Just implement NCO tracking on Reed’s S.
References
Dulvy N, Sadovy Y and Reynolds J (2003). “Extinction Vulnerability in Marine Populations.” Fish And Fisheries, 4. ISSN 1467-2960, https://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1467-2979.2003.00105.x.
Beyond Stochastic Dynamic Programming: A Heuristic Sampling Method For Optimizing Conservation Decisions in Very Large State Spaces, Sam Nicol, Iadine Chadès, (2011) Methods in Ecology And Evolution, 2 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00069.x