Lineage-through-time approach
Nee, then Paradis (Paradis, 2003) introduces unresolved tips
Distribution of branch-lengths approach
Note that in any Markov branching process, only node depth, not topology, influence the likelihood.
See also:
Notes on bootstrapping in laser
Earlier Notes on distribution derivation from Kendall 1948
My derivation of the analytic probability of N individuals in pure birth (from van Kampen approximation)
(manual list)
Refs
Kendall, D. G. (1948). On the Generalized “Birth-and-Death” Process. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 19(1), 1-15.
Alfaro, M. E., Santini, F., Brock, C., Alamillo, H., Dornburg, A., Rabosky, D. L., Carnevale, G., et al. (2009). Nine exceptional radiations plus high turnover explain species diversity in jawed vertebrates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106(32), 13410-4. doi:10.1073/pnas.0811087106 Nee, S., Holmes, E. C., May, R. M., & Harvey, P. H. (1994). Extinction rates can be estimated from molecular phylogenies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 344(1307), 77-82. Nee, S., May, R. M., & Harvey, P. H. (1994). The reconstructed evolutionary process. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 344(1309), 305-311.
Foote, M. (1999). Evolutionary and Preservational Constraints on Origins of Biologic Groups: Divergence Times of Eutherian Mammals. Science, 283(5406), 1310-1314. doi:10.1126/science.283.5406.1310
References
- Paradis E (2003). “Analysis of Diversification: Combining Phylogenetic And Taxonomic Data.” Proceedings of The Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 270. ISSN 0962-8452, https://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2003.2513.