Meeting with Alan today to discuss outline. Came up with basic break-down of paragraphs:

Intro/Abstract

Scope: Previous work, scope simple example existence of warning signal/CSD is clear. Identifiability/Power not clear. Mention the issue of Replicates

Nonlinearity not observed with infinite data

reasons detection fails: Identifiability issue & Power issue. Example signal that exists but inadequate power to detect?

Eigenvalue story

Probability of data vs Probability of a statistic

Simulation example

Summarize results

More knowledge of system help choose the right nonlinear model corresponding to the system.

Conclusions

(Linear/nonlinear estimation analogous to parameterized estimation of tails of distribution vs non-par)

Theoretical mathematics question: Existence Statistical Question: Identifiable, Power

## Continued progress

Setting up more exploratory simulations and writing. Simulation speed is quite limiting at the moment. May need to move likelihood calculations into C.

## OTher Notes

Some discussion of plans for a workshop on NSF data sharing. Alan raises several good points:

Theoretical ecology policy should include a policy on code

How about large data-sets separate from publications, i.e. NEON?

Dave Schimmel NEON – Open Data