- Weekly check-in, following up on last week’s meeting.
Goals for meeting
- Discuss goals for regime shifts seminar tomorrow
- Discuss my manuscript outline on detection limits for early warning signals
- Discuss energy model formulation for analytic approximations to Tribolium model.
- Early warning signals - starting in simple models, proof of principle. Discuss three challenges to detection:
- Eventually develop robust tools to give confidence estimates (parametric bootstrap) on potential early warning signals. Tool could be implemented as an R package.
- Follow up with Darren
- General model testing principles: see Noel Cressie (spatial statistics). Durrett.
- Structured Populations
- I’m now using energy tracking to make the system Markov.
- Implemented in the analytics, need to add to energy accounting to simulation.
- Suggested further background reading, including some of the work of S.A.S. Kooijman, and
- Systematic formulation of tractable single species population models incorporating age structure, Gurney, Nisbet, Lawton 1983, [Gurney1983]
- Gurney WS and Nisbet RM. . pmid:7434253. PubMed HubMed [Gurney1980]
- Also touched on possible conferences to attend this summer. Discussed Conference on Computational and Mathematical Population Dynamics. Should I go? Probably.
Targets for Next Week
- Early warning signals examples of three challenges
- Add the various warning signal metrics to the regime shifts simulation
- Add energy accounting to the beetles.